Working Papers
In this paper I show how wealth inequality affects individual political preferences and voting behavior. I identify an increase in wealth inequality between homeowners and renters using the house price boom in England and Wales for the period between 1995 and 2007. Exploiting county-level variation in house price shocks and using individual level data from the British Household Panel Survey, I evaluate the effect of house price shocks on homeowners preferences and voting behavior relative to renters'. Following recent literature, I test whether richer homeowners become less supportive of redistribution and in turn are more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. I find that homeowners experiencing positive house price shocks are more likely to support the Conservative party. However, I do not find a decrease in their support for the public sector. The results show that homeowners preferences for the public sector vary depending on the value of the property owned, i.e. homeowners of cheaper properties are more likely to support the public sector. Furthermore, I find that higher self-reported value of one's property is correlated with higher probability of voting for the Conservative party, and lower preferences for left-wing leaning policies. This second results might suggest a link between endowment effects and homeowners redistribution preferences.
Media Coverage: The Sunday Times, The Guardian
This paper analyses the effect of conscription on political preferences, voting participation and national identity. After years since the abolition of conscription in Europe, policy makers have started discussing the re-introduction of conscription as a way to strengthen civic engagement and national cohesion. Following from this debate, in 2018 Sweden reintroduced the military service, and president Emmanuel Macron introduced a one-month service for young adults in France. Moreover, several far-right and anti-immigrant parties, e.g. Italy's League and AfD, are in favour of similar reforms. The direct and indirect economic costs of military conscription are non-trivial and have been among the main reasons to abolish conscription in European Countries. Notwithstanding these costs, empirical evidence proving the effectiveness of military service in shaping individual political preferences is still missing. This paper aims at filling this gap. Using a regression discontinuity design, it exploits the introduction of conscription in West Germany to investigate its long-term effects on right-wing ideology, and voting participation. The results show no statistically significant effect of conscription on any of the outcomes considered. These results are corroborated when conducting the analysis using a similar reform and Spanish data, and show no short-term effects of conscription nor effects on shaping Spanish identity.
This paper investigates the effect of migration on household consumption. Using panel data for rural households in Ethiopia, it analyses the effect of having at least one migrant in the household on total, food and non-food consumption. Variation in migration status across the two waves of data allows to unpack important heterogeneous effects of migration. First, this paper finds that the effect of migration on consumption is positive for households with a consolidated history of migration, but this is not the case for households switching their migration status over time. Second, we find that while household-level consumption is higher for households that always have a migrant relative to households who never do, per-capita figures do not reflect this positive effect of migration. As a plausible explanation for this, this paper finds that household size and number of adults increase for households with migrants, suggesting that when more productive members of the household migrate they need to be replaced by enough labour force in the household of origin.
- "Estimating a Poverty Trend for Nigeria between 2009 and 2019" with J. Lain and T. Vishwanath, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, 2022
- "Wealth inequality and political preferences: evidence from the house price boom in England and Wales."
In this paper I show how wealth inequality affects individual political preferences and voting behavior. I identify an increase in wealth inequality between homeowners and renters using the house price boom in England and Wales for the period between 1995 and 2007. Exploiting county-level variation in house price shocks and using individual level data from the British Household Panel Survey, I evaluate the effect of house price shocks on homeowners preferences and voting behavior relative to renters'. Following recent literature, I test whether richer homeowners become less supportive of redistribution and in turn are more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. I find that homeowners experiencing positive house price shocks are more likely to support the Conservative party. However, I do not find a decrease in their support for the public sector. The results show that homeowners preferences for the public sector vary depending on the value of the property owned, i.e. homeowners of cheaper properties are more likely to support the public sector. Furthermore, I find that higher self-reported value of one's property is correlated with higher probability of voting for the Conservative party, and lower preferences for left-wing leaning policies. This second results might suggest a link between endowment effects and homeowners redistribution preferences.
Media Coverage: The Sunday Times, The Guardian
- "The effect of conscription on political attitudes and national identity"
This paper analyses the effect of conscription on political preferences, voting participation and national identity. After years since the abolition of conscription in Europe, policy makers have started discussing the re-introduction of conscription as a way to strengthen civic engagement and national cohesion. Following from this debate, in 2018 Sweden reintroduced the military service, and president Emmanuel Macron introduced a one-month service for young adults in France. Moreover, several far-right and anti-immigrant parties, e.g. Italy's League and AfD, are in favour of similar reforms. The direct and indirect economic costs of military conscription are non-trivial and have been among the main reasons to abolish conscription in European Countries. Notwithstanding these costs, empirical evidence proving the effectiveness of military service in shaping individual political preferences is still missing. This paper aims at filling this gap. Using a regression discontinuity design, it exploits the introduction of conscription in West Germany to investigate its long-term effects on right-wing ideology, and voting participation. The results show no statistically significant effect of conscription on any of the outcomes considered. These results are corroborated when conducting the analysis using a similar reform and Spanish data, and show no short-term effects of conscription nor effects on shaping Spanish identity.
- "The effect of migration on household consumption: evidence from rural Ethiopia"
This paper investigates the effect of migration on household consumption. Using panel data for rural households in Ethiopia, it analyses the effect of having at least one migrant in the household on total, food and non-food consumption. Variation in migration status across the two waves of data allows to unpack important heterogeneous effects of migration. First, this paper finds that the effect of migration on consumption is positive for households with a consolidated history of migration, but this is not the case for households switching their migration status over time. Second, we find that while household-level consumption is higher for households that always have a migrant relative to households who never do, per-capita figures do not reflect this positive effect of migration. As a plausible explanation for this, this paper finds that household size and number of adults increase for households with migrants, suggesting that when more productive members of the household migrate they need to be replaced by enough labour force in the household of origin.